I assume that, based on Shvet's claims, FBI Counterintelligence began already in the 1990s to investigate Trump. I speculate further that this investigation was boosted in 2012, when Trump raised a stink about President Barack Obama's birth certificate. Perhaps FBI Counterintelligence suspected that Trump was doing so as part of a Russian Intelligence effort to meddle in the USA's elections.
I speculate further that this investigation was boosted again in mid-2015, when Trump declared his candidacy for the Presidency. I speculate further that FBI Director James Comey reassigned FBI officer Michael Gaeta to the US Embassy in Rome, Italy, in order to collect in Europe information about Trump. Although Gaeta supposedly was working for the FBI Legate at that Embassy, he really was working for and reporting to FBI Counterintelligence.
The FBI kept this investigation extremely secret. The main reason that if Trump or Russian Intelligence became aware of the investigation, then the FBI's collection of information might be frustrated.
As the election race continued through the year 2016, however, another consideration grew within the FBI leadership. Although the investigation should remain very secret, the public -- in particular, elite opinion-makers -- should be warned subtly that Trump might be a secret agent for Russian Intelligence.
In this blog article here, I speculate about how the FBI leadership leaked such warnings about Trump. I cannot provide convincing evidence. I hope I can provide some ideas, however, about how such leaks might have been done.
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According to the official story, told in the Horowitz report, Christopher Steele delivered his Dossier reports to FBI official Michael Gaeta for the first time on July 5, 2016. The first delivered report was Number 80. I think that Steele already had delivered 79 reports, which have kept secret from the public to the present.
Steele formally worked for the company Fusion GPS and delivered his reports primarily to that company. He numbered his reports sequentially as he delivered them to that client. However (I speculate), he delivered them also to Gaeta, who forwarded them directly to FBI Counterintelligence. This arrangement was very secret. Not even Gaeta's supposed boss, the FBI Legate at the USA's Rome Embassy, was aware that Gaeta was collecting information in Europe about Trump from Steele and from other sources and was sending it directly to FBI Counterintelligence.
In this arrangement, FBI Counterintelligence was able to suggest to Steele (i.e. to Fusion GPS) particular subjects to research. Eventually, as the FBI prepared its FISA applications against Trump, Steele was tasked subtly to provide information quickly that might be necessary to justify the application.
Also in this arrangement, as the FBI leadership decided to warn the public subtly about Trump, Steele and Fusion GPS could be encouraged to leak insinuations about Trump to journalists. Supposedly, Gaeta forbad Steele to do such leaking and ultimately punished Steele by firing him from his position as a paid secret informant. However, there might be much more to that story. For example, perhaps Steele had been encouraged to leak, but he eventually did so in a blatant manner that angered Gaeta.
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On March 17, 2017, James Wolfe, the Director of Security for the United States Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI), provided to journalist Ali Watkins (his former lover) the entire FISA warrant targeting Carter Page. Wolfe was caught in October 2017 and eventually was charged -- but only for lying to investigators. Wolfe pled guilty to that lesser charge and never was charged for leaking the FISA warrant -- a top secret document. Wolfe was sentenced to only two months in jail.
Why was Wolfe not charged for leaking the FISA warrant that targeted Page? Blogger Sundance has speculated that Wolfe had leaked the FISA warrant at the behest of some top members of the SSCI.
.... lawyers for Mr. Wolfe have sent letters to every Senator who sits on the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. ... The lawyers for Wolfe are putting the senators on notice they might be called as defense witnesses. ....
Remember, Wolfe isn’t charged with the leaks, he’s charged with lying to the FBI. His lawyers inferring that Senators might be called to rebut the allegations, seems to imply that Senators might have authorized the content of those allegations; or, put simply, Senators might have authorized or instructed Wolfe to make the leaks to the media. [emphasis added]
I had been persuaded by Sundance's speculation, but recently I myself have begun to speculate along a different line. I wonder whether Wolfe leaked the FISA warrant not at the behest of some SSCI members -- but rather at the behest of FBI Director Comey.
Comey devoted a lot of thought and effort to his leaking techniques, managing to escape legal punishment even if he were caught.
By leaking the FISA warrant through the SSCI's Director of Security, Comey created an illusion that the FBI had nothing to do with the leak. The apparent culprit was the SSCI, which is not even in the Executive Branch.
Also, as long as Comey was the FBI Director, the FBI never was able to catch Wolfe. Only after Comey was fired from the FBI in May 2017 did the FBI catch Wolfe in October 2017. Then, even after Wolfe was caught, he was not charged with leaking the FIsA warrant, because he threatened to reveal that he had done so at the behest of FBI Director Comey.
That is my speculation, which I cannot prove.
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Long before Wolfe leaked the FISA warrant to Watkins in March 2017, someone leaked general information about the FISA warrant to another journalist, Louise Mensch, the British owner of the website Heat Street, revealed on November 7, 2016, (the day before the election) that the FBI had obtained a FISA warrant targeting Trump.
Ali Watkins, born in 1991, is 20 years younger than Louise Mensch, born in 1971, but I wonder whether Wolfe ever had a romantic relationship likewise with Mensch.
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| James Wolfe and FISA Leak Recipient Ali Watkins |
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| FISA Leak recipient Louise Mensch |
There might be a pattern here. Part of the pattern might be that Wolfe was told to leak by Comey, who firmly believed that Trump was an agent of influence, controlled by Russian Intelligence. Comey wanted to warn the public subtly that Trump was being investigated formally by the FBI on suspicion of colluding with Russian Intelligence..
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(The following three paragraphs are incorrect, but I am leaving them here for discussion. I have published a correction in my following blog article, Senator Reid's Letters to FBI Director Comey.)
The official story is that the FBI indeed was investigating Trump for good reason, but was keeping its investigation very secret. The culprit who revealed the FBI investigation to the public was Senator Harry Reid. He did so on October 30, nine days before the election.
The situation seems to be that Reid -- because he was the Senate leader -- had been briefed about the FBI investigation of Trump, but Reid was supposed to keep that investigation secret from the public. However, Reid was so angry at Comey for recently re-opening the investigation of Hillary Clinton's e-mails that Reid revealed to the public the FBI investigation of Trump.
However, I wonder whether Comey really wanted Reid to keep the FBI investigation of Trump secret. Perhaps Comey expected and even wanted Reid to reveal the FBI investigation right after the briefing.
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| Leaks of Classified Information Before and During Trump |
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