Sunday, January 1, 2023

My Conspiracy Theory About the Prague-Meeting Hoax -- Part 1

I recently published a seven-part series of blog articles titled The FBI's Abuse of Michael Cohen. While doing so, I developed a conspiracy theory about the Prague-meeting hoax. According to Christopher Steele's Dossier, Cohen met secretly with several Kremlin officials in Prague in August and/or September 2016 in order to discuss a collusion between Donald Trump and Russian Intelligence.

The Prague meeting seemed to be confirmed in April 2018 when an unidentified US Intelligence official leaked to two journalists -- Greg Gordon and Peter Stone -- that an unidentified East European intelligence agency had detected two events:

1) Cohen's cell-phone number pinging a cell tower in the Prague area, and

2) a Russian-language communication about Cohen visiting that area.

I will call this "the Double Detection".

The article by Gordon and Stone was published on April 13, 2018. The apparent reason for this leak was to justify to the public the FBI's raid on Michael Cohen's hotel room, apartment and law office that had been carried out on April 9. Since Cohen was the Vice President of The Trump Organization and also was President Trump's lawyer, the raid was sure to provoke public criticism. The leaker -- likely a high-ranking FBI official -- leaked this information in order to assure the public that the raid was not based entirely on Steele's Dossier.

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Since, however, this Michael Cohen never visited Prague, the Double Detection must have been staged in order to plant false evidence that he indeed was there. A device with his phone number pinged a Prague cell tower, and a Russian-language conversation was staged.

I speculate that the Double Detection was arranged by a group of persons who had been associated with the US Intelligence Community and now were working to elect Hillary Clinton. They knew that an East European intelligence agency would detect the two events and would, if asked, share those findings with US Intelligence. From there, the information might be leaked to the US electorate shortly before the Presidential election if a Trump victory seemed possible.

The Steele Dossier was part of a larger program to collect incriminating information about Trump and then to reveal that information to the electorate as necessary. In particular, the Dossier incriminated Trump in collusion with Russian Intelligence and mafias.

The first Dossier reports indicated that the key intermediary between Trump and Russian villains was Carter Page. In subsequent Dossier reports, the key intermediary became Paul Manafort, until Trump fired him from his campaign-manager position on about August 19, 2016. Then on October 16 -- about three weeks before Election Day -- Steele published his first Dossier report indicating that the ultimate intermediary would be Michael Cohen. As a close and long-time associate of Trump, Cohen was a much more impressive collusion culprit than Page or Manafort had been.

Although Cohen had not travled, worked and lived in Russia, Cohen had been involved in a project to develop a Trump Hotel in Moscow that might cause him to visit there for at least a few days in 2016. Since that project fell through, however, Clinton's secret group developed a scheme to place Cohen in at least East Europe, in at least a fictitious, secret situation.

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The following image shows the result of the YouGov/Economist opinion poll conducted during October 15-18, 2016 -- about the time when secret preparations were underway to cast Cohen as the new intermediary. Despite the "grab-them-by-the-pussy" scandal that had begun on October 7, Trump's support was holding steady at 38%, whereas Clinton's support was on a downward trajectory, declining from 44% to 42%. An upset victory by Trump or Clinton seemed increasingly plausible.


In this situation, Clinton might have to resort to revealing the Dossier to the electorate before Election Day, November 8. This revelation would be reinforced by leaks from the US Intelligence Community revealing that Cohen's presence had been detected in Prague, thus confirming the Dossier's reports about Cohen's role in the imaginary collusion.

Of course, Cohen would deny that he had visited Prague, but he would not be able to convince the public adequately until after Election Day.  

Although Clinton had prepared this October Surprise -- the revelations of the Dossier and of the Double Detections -- she had become confident by the beginning of October that she would defeat Trump. The YouGov/Economist poll conducted during October 30 - November 1 found that she was leading him steadily by 46% to 43% among likely voters. Because of this confidence, Clinton did not resort to this October Surprise.

The Dossier remained secret until January 2017, and the Double Detection remained secret until April 2018. Keep in mind, though, that the Dossier and the Double Detection had been prepared for potential revelations in the last week of October or the first week of November 2016. The revelations did not happen only because a Clinton victory seemed certain.

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Plenty of US Intelligence Community officials were willing to deceive the US electorate in order to prevent Trump from winning an election. For example, here is a list of 50 such officials:

Jim Clapper, former director of national intelligence

Leon Panetta, former CIA director

John Brennan, former CIA director

Fingar, former National Intelligence Council chair

Rick Ledgett, former National Security Agency deputy director

John McLaughlin, former CIA acting director

Michael Morell, former CIA acting director

Mike Vickers, former defense undersecretary for intelligence

Doug Wise, former Defense Intelligence Agency deputy director

Nick Rasmussen, former National Counterterrorism Center director

Russ Travers, former National Counterterrorism Center acting director

Andy Liepman, former National Counterterrorism Center deputy director

John Moseman, former CIA chief of staff

Larry Pfeiffer, former CIA chief of staff

Jeremy Bash, former CIA chief of staff

Rodney Snyder, former CIA chief of staff

Glenn Gerstell, former National Security Agency general counsel

David Priess, former CIA analyst and manager

Pam Purcilly, former CIA deputy director of analysis

Marc Polymeropoulos, former CIA senior operations officer

Chris Savos, former CIA senior operations officer

John Tullius, former CIA senior intelligence officer

David A. Vanell, former CIA senior operations officer

Kristin Wood, former CIA senior intelligence officer

David Buckley, former CIA inspector general

Nada Bakos, former CIA analyst and targeting officer

Patty Brandmaier, former CIA senior intelligence officer

James B. Bruce, former CIA senior intelligence officer

David Cariens, former CIA intelligence analyst

Janice Cariens, former CIA operational support officer

Paul Kolbe, former CIA senior operations officer

Peter Corsell, former CIA analyst

Brett Davis, former CIA senior intelligence officer

Roger Zane George, former national intelligence officer

Steven L. Hall, former CIA senior intelligence officer

Kent Harrington, former national intelligence officer

Don Hepburn, former national security executive

Timothy D. Kilbourn, former dean of CIA’s Kent School of Intelligence Analysis

Ron Marks, former CIA officer

Jonna Hiestand Mendez, former CIA technical operations officer

Emile Nakhleh, former director of CIA’s Political Islam Strategic Analysis Program

Gerald A. O’Shea, former CIA senior operations officer

Nick Shapiro, former CIA deputy chief of staff

John Sipher, former CIA senior operations officer

Stephen Slick, former National Security Council senior director for intelligence programs

Cynthia Strand, former CIA deputy assistant director for global issues

Greg Tarbell, former CIA deputy executive director

David Terry, former National Intelligence Collection Board chairman

Greg Treverton, former National Intelligence Council chair

Winston Wiley, former CIA director of analysis

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Continued in Part 2

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