Saturday, October 1, 2016

Crime rates rose significantly in Ferguson during 2014-2015

Crime in the city of Ferguson, Missouri, has risen significantly since police officer Darren Wilson was falsely accused of murdering Michael Brown there in August 2014. Crime in Ferguson -- population about 21,0000 -- rose significantly more than in other US cities of similar size.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) provides the following statistics for crimes that were recorded in US cities with population in the range from 10,000 to 25,000.

The 2013 statistics are here.
The 2014 statistics are here.
The 2015 statistics are here.

The below list indicates that the rates changed little during the three-year period 2013-2015.

All rates below are incidents per 100,000 residents, rounded to the nearest integer. An exact half is rounded upward.

Violent Crimes
In 2013 = 269
In 2014 = 264
In 2015 = 270

Murder and Non-Negligent Manslaughter
In 2013 = 3
In 2014 = 3
In 2015 = 3

Rapes (revised definition)
In 2013 = 35
In 2014 = 34
In 2015 = 33

Robberies
In 2013 = 60
In 2014 = 56
In 2015 = 55

Aggravated Assaults
In 2013 = 177
In 2014 = 176
In 2015 = 180

Property Crimes
In 2013 = 2,727
In 2014 = 2,572
In 2015 = 2,461

Burglaries
In 2013 = 538
In 2014 = 472
In 2015 = 428

Larcenies - Thefts
In 2013 = 2,055
In 2014 = 1,971
In 2015 = 1,902

Motor Vehicle Thefts
In 2013 = 135
In 2014 = 129
In 2015 = 131


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Ferguson fits into the above group of cities -- populations 10,000 to 25,000. The FBI provides Ferguson's statistics, from which I have calculated the rates. You will see in the below list that the rates rise significantly compared to the above list.

The 2013 statistics are here.
The 2014 statistics are here.
The 2015 statistics are here.

Ferguson Population
In 2013 = 21,115
In 2014 = 21,090
In 2015 = 21,059

In each case, I used the year's population and the number of incidents to calculate the rate (per 100,000 residents).

Violent Crimes
In 2013 --> 101 --> 478
In 2014 --> 115 --> 545
In 2015 --> 190 --> 902

Murders and Non-Negligent Manslaughters
In 2013 --> 2 --> 9
In 2014 --> 2 --> 10
In 2015 --> 5 --> 24

Rapes (revised definition)
In 2013 --> 3 --> 14
In 2014 --> 2 --> 10
In 2015 --> 8 --> 38

Robberies
In 2013 --> 54 --> 256
In 2014 --> 51 --> 242
In 2015 --> 82 --> 389

Aggravated Assaults
In 2013 --> 42 --> 199
In 2014 --> 60 --> 284
In 2015 --> 95 --> 451

Property Crimes
In 2013 --> 1,126 --> 5,333
In 2014 --> 1,027 --> 4,870
In 2015 --> 1,005 --> 4,772

Burglaries
In 2013 --> 300 --> 1,421
In 2014 --> 326 --> 1,546
In 2015 --> 366 --> 1,734

Larcenies - Thefts
In 2013 --> 749 --> 3,547
In 2014 --> 628 --> 2,978
In 2015 --> 520 --> 2,469

Motor Vehicle Thefts
In 2013 --> 77 --> 365
In 2014 --> 73 --> 346
In 2015 --> 119 --> 565

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The rate of Property Crimes declined in the such-size cities in general and in Ferguson in particular. Property Crimes encompass the following:

* burglary

* larceny

* theft

* motor-vehicle theft

* arson

* shoplifting

* vandalism

I speculate that in Ferguson the shop-lifting incidents declined significantly because of the destruction and bankruptcy of retail businesses.

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